Target Price Playground
MA
$498.66
๐ข
MA IV: 27.5% โ LOW
(-43.4% vs 30d avg of 48.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $440 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $500 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.87 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $460 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.7 ยท ฮ -0.23
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MA hits $440 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$2,683 (203.7%) on $1,317 risked, vs $-5,866 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $49,866. Options give 17.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MA is at $440. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MA hits $440 by Jun 19
+$2,683
+203.7% on $1,317 risked
Max Profit
+$2,683
If the stock โค $460 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,317
Net debit
Break-even
$486.83
-2.37% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
32%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-21.82 / -2.36 / 15.26
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $399 (-20%) | +$2,388 | +$2,526 | +$2,647 | +$2,683 |
| $424 (-15%) | +$2,029 | +$2,221 | +$2,483 | +$2,683 |
| $440 (-12%) โ target | +$1,693 | +$1,877 | +$2,185 | +$2,683 |
| $449 (-10%) | +$1,481 | +$1,643 | +$1,936 | +$2,683 |
| $474 (-5%) | +$819 | +$862 | +$944 | +$1,310 |
| $489 (-2%) | +$416 | +$375 | +$282 | -$186 |
| $499 (0%) โ spot | +$162 | +$71 | -$119 | -$1,183 |
| $509 (+2%) | -$75 | -$206 | -$461 | -$1,317 |
| $524 (+5%) | -$388 | -$555 | -$844 | -$1,317 |
| $549 (+10%) | -$785 | -$955 | -$1,178 | -$1,317 |
| $573 (+15%) | -$1,037 | -$1,166 | -$1,286 | -$1,317 |
| $598 (+20%) | -$1,181 | -$1,261 | -$1,312 | -$1,317 |
Uses MA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.