Target Price Playground
MA
$498.66
๐ข
MA IV: 28.2% โ LOW
(-41.9% vs 30d avg of 48.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $475 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $500 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.5 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $475 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.35 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MA hits $475 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$2,143 (263.0%) on $815 risked, vs $-2,366 (-4.7%) for 100 shares on $49,866. Options give 56.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MA is at $475. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MA hits $475 by Jun 19
+$2,143
+263.0% on $815 risked
Max Profit
+$2,075
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$815
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$517.23
+3.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-14.24 / 3.09 / 29.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $399 (-20%) | +$1,483 | +$1,519 | +$1,529 | +$1,515 |
| $424 (-15%) | +$1,407 | +$1,491 | +$1,563 | +$1,536 |
| $449 (-10%) | +$1,233 | +$1,354 | +$1,526 | +$1,660 |
| $475 (-5%) โ target | +$934 | +$1,040 | +$1,225 | +$2,126 |
| $489 (-2%) | +$742 | +$816 | +$944 | +$1,232 |
| $499 (0%) โ spot | +$594 | +$639 | +$708 | +$701 |
| $509 (+2%) | +$443 | +$457 | +$462 | +$273 |
| $524 (+5%) | +$222 | +$190 | +$112 | -$194 |
| $549 (+10%) | -$109 | -$192 | -$340 | -$608 |
| $573 (+15%) | -$368 | -$466 | -$604 | -$759 |
| $598 (+20%) | -$549 | -$636 | -$731 | -$802 |
Uses MA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.