Target Price Playground
MA
$498.66
๐ข
MA IV: 27.5% โ LOW
(-43.4% vs 30d avg of 48.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $440 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $500 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.87 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MA hits $440 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$3,613 (151.4%) on $2,387 risked, vs $-5,866 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $49,866. Options give 12.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MA is at $440. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MA hits $440 by Jun 19
+$3,613
+151.4% on $2,387 risked
Max Profit
+$47,613
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$2,387
Premium paid
Break-even
$476.13
-4.52% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
32%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.0 / -17.4 / 84.23
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $399 (-20%) | +$7,380 | +$7,462 | +$7,579 | +$7,720 |
| $424 (-15%) | +$5,057 | +$5,047 | +$5,097 | +$5,227 |
| $440 (-12%) โ target | +$3,665 | +$3,568 | +$3,520 | +$3,613 |
| $449 (-10%) | +$2,958 | +$2,809 | +$2,689 | +$2,734 |
| $474 (-5%) | +$1,197 | +$910 | +$560 | +$240 |
| $489 (-2%) | +$335 | -$5 | -$458 | -$1,256 |
| $499 (0%) โ spot | -$155 | -$514 | -$999 | -$2,253 |
| $509 (+2%) | -$578 | -$941 | -$1,427 | -$2,387 |
| $524 (+5%) | -$1,098 | -$1,441 | -$1,876 | -$2,387 |
| $549 (+10%) | -$1,696 | -$1,964 | -$2,242 | -$2,387 |
| $573 (+15%) | -$2,042 | -$2,218 | -$2,355 | -$2,387 |
| $598 (+20%) | -$2,226 | -$2,327 | -$2,382 | -$2,387 |
Uses MA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.