Target Price Playground
MA
$498.66
๐ข
MA IV: 28.2% โ LOW
(-41.9% vs 30d avg of 48.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $550 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $498.66 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $475 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.35 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MA hits $550 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$3,699 (7.2%) on $51,301 risked, vs +$5,134 (10.3%) for 100 shares on $49,866. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MA is at $550. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MA hits $550 by Jun 19
+$3,699
+7.2% on $51,301 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,801
Put floors you at $475
Break-even
$513.01
+2.88% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
69.73 / -16.54 / 70.91
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $399 (-20%) | -$3,999 | -$3,991 | -$3,928 | -$3,801 |
| $424 (-15%) | -$3,641 | -$3,768 | -$3,860 | -$3,801 |
| $449 (-10%) | -$2,939 | -$3,205 | -$3,527 | -$3,801 |
| $474 (-5%) | -$1,808 | -$2,148 | -$2,609 | -$3,801 |
| $489 (-2%) | -$920 | -$1,260 | -$1,709 | -$2,432 |
| $499 (0%) โ spot | -$248 | -$571 | -$977 | -$1,435 |
| $509 (+2%) | +$482 | +$185 | -$162 | -$438 |
| $524 (+5%) | +$1,670 | +$1,425 | +$1,177 | +$1,058 |
| $550 (+10%) โ target | +$3,978 | +$3,828 | +$3,720 | +$3,699 |
| $573 (+15%) | +$6,174 | +$6,090 | +$6,048 | +$6,045 |
| $598 (+20%) | +$8,591 | +$8,551 | +$8,538 | +$8,538 |
Uses MA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.