Target Price Playground
MA
$498.66
๐ข
MA IV: 27.5% โ LOW
(-43.4% vs 30d avg of 48.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $540 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $498.66 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $540 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.7 ยท ฮ 0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MA hits $540 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$4,904 (10.0%) on $49,096 risked, vs +$4,134 (8.3%) for 100 shares on $49,866. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MA is at $540. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MA hits $540 by Jun 19
+$4,904
+10.0% on $49,096 risked
Max Profit
+$4,904
If the stock โฅ $540 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$49,096
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$490.96
-1.54% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
73.37 / 13.85 / -79.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $399 (-20%) | -$9,215 | -$9,205 | -$9,203 | -$9,203 |
| $424 (-15%) | -$6,764 | -$6,722 | -$6,710 | -$6,710 |
| $449 (-10%) | -$4,396 | -$4,280 | -$4,222 | -$4,217 |
| $474 (-5%) | -$2,199 | -$1,957 | -$1,770 | -$1,723 |
| $489 (-2%) | -$1,005 | -$675 | -$363 | -$227 |
| $499 (0%) โ spot | -$274 | +$114 | +$520 | +$770 |
| $509 (+2%) | +$399 | +$839 | +$1,338 | +$1,767 |
| $524 (+5%) | +$1,294 | +$1,795 | +$2,407 | +$3,263 |
| $540 (+8%) โ target | +$2,115 | +$2,649 | +$3,321 | +$4,904 |
| $549 (+10%) | +$2,475 | +$3,013 | +$3,684 | +$4,904 |
| $573 (+15%) | +$3,293 | +$3,790 | +$4,360 | +$4,904 |
| $598 (+20%) | +$3,816 | +$4,229 | +$4,637 | +$4,904 |
Uses MA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.