Target Price Playground
MANH
$120.88
๐ก
MANH IV: 45.6% โ NORMAL
(-13.7% vs 30d avg of 52.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.6 ยท ฮ 0.57
SHORT CALL ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.52 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MANH hits $135 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$591 (144.7%) on $409 risked, vs +$1,412 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $12,088. Options give 12.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MANH is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MANH hits $135 by Jun 19
+$591
+144.7% on $409 risked
Max Profit
+$591
If the stock โฅ $130 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$409
Net debit
Break-even
$124.09
+2.65% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
14.25 / -0.16 / -0.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MANH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | -$297 | -$335 | -$384 | -$408 |
| $103 (-15%) | -$238 | -$278 | -$344 | -$408 |
| $109 (-10%) | -$166 | -$201 | -$270 | -$408 |
| $115 (-5%) | -$85 | -$108 | -$160 | -$408 |
| $118 (-2%) | -$34 | -$47 | -$81 | -$408 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | -$5 | -$25 | -$320 |
| $123 (+2%) | +$35 | +$36 | +$33 | -$78 |
| $127 (+5%) | +$86 | +$99 | +$120 | +$284 |
| $133 (+10%) | +$168 | +$198 | +$255 | +$592 |
| $135 (+12%) โ target | +$194 | +$229 | +$295 | +$592 |
| $139 (+15%) | +$243 | +$286 | +$366 | +$592 |
| $145 (+20%) | +$309 | +$361 | +$450 | +$592 |
Uses MANH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.