Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MANH hits $125 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$537 (5.1%) on $-537 credit (max loss $10,463), vs +$412 (3.4%) for 100 shares on $12,088. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MANH is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MANH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | -$1,126 | -$1,011 | -$881 | -$793 |
| $103 (-15%) | -$754 | -$612 | -$431 | -$188 |
| $109 (-10%) | -$445 | -$287 | -$78 | +$416 |
| $115 (-5%) | -$195 | -$35 | +$174 | +$537 |
| $118 (-2%) | -$72 | +$84 | +$282 | +$537 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$152 | +$338 | +$537 |
| $123 (+2%) | +$65 | +$211 | +$383 | +$537 |
| $125 (+3%) โ target | +$107 | +$248 | +$410 | +$537 |
| $127 (+5%) | +$150 | +$285 | +$435 | +$537 |
| $133 (+10%) | +$262 | +$377 | +$488 | +$537 |
| $139 (+15%) | +$345 | +$437 | +$515 | +$537 |
| $145 (+20%) | +$404 | +$476 | +$527 | +$537 |