Target Price Playground
MANH
$120.88
๐ก
MANH IV: 45.6% โ NORMAL
(-13.7% vs 30d avg of 52.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $130 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $120.88 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.52 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MANH hits $130 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,664 (14.7%) on $11,336 risked, vs +$912 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $12,088. Options give 2.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MANH is at $130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MANH hits $130 by Jun 19
+$1,664
+14.7% on $11,336 risked
Max Profit
+$1,664
If the stock โฅ $130 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$11,336
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$113.36
-6.22% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.06 / 8.44 / -20.34
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MANH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | -$1,781 | -$1,714 | -$1,672 | -$1,666 |
| $103 (-15%) | -$1,267 | -$1,166 | -$1,084 | -$1,061 |
| $109 (-10%) | -$795 | -$657 | -$521 | -$457 |
| $115 (-5%) | -$371 | -$198 | -$4 | +$148 |
| $118 (-2%) | -$142 | +$49 | +$275 | +$510 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$201 | +$446 | +$752 |
| $123 (+2%) | +$134 | +$343 | +$604 | +$994 |
| $127 (+5%) | +$319 | +$537 | +$815 | +$1,356 |
| $130 (+8%) โ target | +$461 | +$684 | +$970 | +$1,664 |
| $133 (+10%) | +$586 | +$811 | +$1,098 | +$1,664 |
| $139 (+15%) | +$805 | +$1,027 | +$1,299 | +$1,664 |
| $145 (+20%) | +$983 | +$1,192 | +$1,434 | +$1,664 |
Uses MANH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.