Target Price Playground
MANH
$120.88
๐ก
MANH IV: 45.6% โ NORMAL
(-13.7% vs 30d avg of 52.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $120 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.53 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $115 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.36 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MANH hits $115 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$510 (122.3%) on $417 risked, vs $-588 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $12,088. Options give 25.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MANH is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MANH hits $115 by Jun 19
+$510
+122.3% on $417 risked
Max Profit
+$491
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$395
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$126.40
+4.56% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-6.42 / 1.03 / 4.82
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MANH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | +$86 | +$108 | +$128 | +$90 |
| $103 (-15%) | +$79 | +$111 | +$156 | +$162 |
| $109 (-10%) | +$63 | +$99 | +$163 | +$294 |
| $115 (-5%) โ target | +$35 | +$70 | +$137 | +$511 |
| $118 (-2%) | +$15 | +$48 | +$107 | +$324 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$29 | +$82 | +$211 |
| $123 (+2%) | -$16 | +$9 | +$52 | +$110 |
| $127 (+5%) | -$41 | -$23 | +$4 | -$16 |
| $133 (+10%) | -$85 | -$80 | -$81 | -$173 |
| $139 (+15%) | -$130 | -$137 | -$162 | -$275 |
| $145 (+20%) | -$174 | -$191 | -$232 | -$338 |
Uses MANH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.