Target Price Playground
MANH
$120.88
๐ก
MANH IV: 45.6% โ NORMAL
(-13.7% vs 30d avg of 52.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $105 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.74 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MANH hits $105 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$526 (54.1%) on $974 risked, vs $-1,588 (-13.1%) for 100 shares on $12,088. Options give 4.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MANH is at $105. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MANH hits $105 by Jun 19
+$526
+54.1% on $974 risked
Max Profit
+$11,026
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$974
Premium paid
Break-even
$110.26
-8.78% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-42.81 / -7.13 / 20.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MANH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | +$1,483 | +$1,411 | +$1,352 | +$1,356 |
| $103 (-15%) | +$1,028 | +$919 | +$804 | +$751 |
| $105 (-13%) โ target | +$873 | +$751 | +$614 | +$526 |
| $109 (-10%) | +$628 | +$487 | +$315 | +$147 |
| $115 (-5%) | +$285 | +$122 | -$93 | -$458 |
| $118 (-2%) | +$107 | -$64 | -$292 | -$820 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$175 | -$407 | -$974 |
| $123 (+2%) | -$100 | -$275 | -$507 | -$974 |
| $127 (+5%) | -$233 | -$407 | -$631 | -$974 |
| $133 (+10%) | -$419 | -$582 | -$779 | -$974 |
| $139 (+15%) | -$564 | -$709 | -$869 | -$974 |
| $145 (+20%) | -$675 | -$799 | -$921 | -$974 |
Uses MANH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.