Target Price Playground
MANH
$120.88
๐ก
MANH IV: 45.6% โ NORMAL
(-13.7% vs 30d avg of 52.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $120.88 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $115 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.36 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MANH hits $135 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$676 (5.3%) on $12,824 risked, vs +$1,412 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $12,088. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MANH is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MANH hits $135 by Jun 19
+$676
+5.3% on $12,824 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,324
Put floors you at $115
Break-even
$128.24
+6.09% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.51 / -6.86 / 19.28
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MANH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | -$1,108 | -$1,202 | -$1,295 | -$1,324 |
| $103 (-15%) | -$919 | -$1,047 | -$1,198 | -$1,324 |
| $109 (-10%) | -$671 | -$824 | -$1,023 | -$1,324 |
| $115 (-5%) | -$363 | -$530 | -$751 | -$1,324 |
| $118 (-2%) | -$152 | -$320 | -$542 | -$978 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$167 | -$384 | -$736 |
| $123 (+2%) | +$160 | -$4 | -$213 | -$494 |
| $127 (+5%) | +$414 | +$257 | +$65 | -$132 |
| $133 (+10%) | +$871 | +$731 | +$576 | +$473 |
| $135 (+12%) โ target | +$1,033 | +$900 | +$758 | +$676 |
| $139 (+15%) | +$1,364 | +$1,245 | +$1,128 | +$1,077 |
| $145 (+20%) | +$1,886 | +$1,788 | +$1,706 | +$1,682 |
Uses MANH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.