Target Price Playground
MANH
$120.88
๐ก
MANH IV: 45.6% โ NORMAL
(-13.7% vs 30d avg of 52.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.6 ยท ฮ 0.57
LONG PUT ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.74 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MANH hits $140 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-134 (-6.3%) on $2,134 risked, vs +$1,912 (15.8%) for 100 shares on $12,088. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MANH is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MANH hits $140 by Jun 19
$-134
-6.3% on $2,134 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,134
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$141.34
+16.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
48%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
14.39 / -15.73 / 40.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MANH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | +$549 | +$372 | +$223 | +$196 |
| $103 (-15%) | +$244 | -$7 | -$269 | -$409 |
| $109 (-10%) | +$48 | -$266 | -$642 | -$1,013 |
| $115 (-5%) | -$33 | -$393 | -$853 | -$1,618 |
| $118 (-2%) | -$26 | -$402 | -$891 | -$1,980 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$382 | -$878 | -$2,046 |
| $123 (+2%) | +$43 | -$340 | -$836 | -$1,804 |
| $127 (+5%) | +$138 | -$241 | -$722 | -$1,442 |
| $133 (+10%) | +$372 | +$14 | -$413 | -$837 |
| $140 (+16%) โ target | +$745 | +$428 | +$89 | -$134 |
| $145 (+20%) | +$1,070 | +$788 | +$513 | +$372 |
Uses MANH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.