Target Price Playground
MANH
$120.88
๐ก
MANH IV: 45.6% โ NORMAL
(-13.7% vs 30d avg of 52.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.6 ยท ฮ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MANH hits $135 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$340 (29.3%) on $1,160 risked, vs +$1,412 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $12,088. Options give 2.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MANH is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MANH hits $135 by Jun 19
+$340
+29.3% on $1,160 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,160
Premium paid
Break-even
$131.60
+8.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.19 / -8.6 / 20.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MANH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | -$934 | -$1,039 | -$1,130 | -$1,160 |
| $103 (-15%) | -$784 | -$926 | -$1,073 | -$1,160 |
| $109 (-10%) | -$580 | -$753 | -$958 | -$1,160 |
| $115 (-5%) | -$318 | -$514 | -$761 | -$1,160 |
| $118 (-2%) | -$134 | -$338 | -$598 | -$1,160 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$207 | -$471 | -$1,072 |
| $123 (+2%) | +$143 | -$65 | -$329 | -$830 |
| $127 (+5%) | +$371 | +$166 | -$91 | -$468 |
| $133 (+10%) | +$791 | +$596 | +$366 | +$137 |
| $135 (+12%) โ target | +$941 | +$751 | +$533 | +$340 |
| $139 (+15%) | +$1,250 | +$1,072 | +$880 | +$741 |
| $145 (+20%) | +$1,744 | +$1,587 | +$1,433 | +$1,346 |
Uses MANH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.