Target Price Playground
MAR
$354.10
๐ข
MAR IV: 31.7% โ LOW
(-53.9% vs 30d avg of 68.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $310 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $355 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.47 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $325 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.9 ยท ฮ -0.23
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $310 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,843 (159.2%) on $1,157 risked, vs $-4,410 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $35,410. Options give 12.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $310. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $310 by Jun 19
+$1,843
+159.2% on $1,157 risked
Max Profit
+$1,843
If the stock โค $325 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,157
Net debit
Break-even
$343.43
-3.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-22.91 / -2.33 / 14.44
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $283 (-20%) | +$1,533 | +$1,655 | +$1,787 | +$1,843 |
| $301 (-15%) | +$1,249 | +$1,391 | +$1,608 | +$1,843 |
| $310 (-12%) โ target | +$1,064 | +$1,194 | +$1,421 | +$1,843 |
| $319 (-10%) | +$866 | +$970 | +$1,168 | +$1,843 |
| $336 (-5%) | +$429 | +$450 | +$490 | +$704 |
| $347 (-2%) | +$167 | +$132 | +$57 | -$359 |
| $354 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$68 | -$209 | -$1,067 |
| $361 (+2%) | -$157 | -$253 | -$442 | -$1,157 |
| $372 (+5%) | -$370 | -$494 | -$718 | -$1,157 |
| $390 (+10%) | -$655 | -$793 | -$993 | -$1,157 |
| $407 (+15%) | -$856 | -$976 | -$1,107 | -$1,157 |
| $425 (+20%) | -$987 | -$1,074 | -$1,144 | -$1,157 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.