Target Price Playground
MAR
$354.10
๐ข
MAR IV: 31.7% โ LOW
(-53.9% vs 30d avg of 68.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $395 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $355 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.49 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $380 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.5 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $395 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,301 (108.5%) on $1,199 risked, vs +$4,090 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $35,410. Options give 9.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $395. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $395 by Jun 19
+$1,301
+108.5% on $1,199 risked
Max Profit
+$1,301
If the stock โฅ $380 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,199
Net debit
Break-even
$366.99
+3.64% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
21.7 / -3.9 / 4.49
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $283 (-20%) | -$1,123 | -$1,170 | -$1,197 | -$1,199 |
| $301 (-15%) | -$1,012 | -$1,098 | -$1,178 | -$1,199 |
| $319 (-10%) | -$822 | -$934 | -$1,091 | -$1,199 |
| $336 (-5%) | -$553 | -$654 | -$841 | -$1,199 |
| $347 (-2%) | -$361 | -$436 | -$588 | -$1,199 |
| $354 (0%) โ spot | -$227 | -$276 | -$384 | -$1,199 |
| $361 (+2%) | -$90 | -$111 | -$161 | -$581 |
| $372 (+5%) | +$115 | +$139 | +$183 | +$482 |
| $390 (+10%) | +$434 | +$520 | +$686 | +$1,301 |
| $395 (+12%) โ target | +$523 | +$623 | +$810 | +$1,301 |
| $407 (+15%) | +$701 | +$820 | +$1,020 | +$1,301 |
| $425 (+20%) | +$906 | +$1,027 | +$1,192 | +$1,301 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.