Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $370 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$690 (2.2%) on $-690 credit (max loss $31,810), vs +$1,590 (4.5%) for 100 shares on $35,410. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $283 (-20%) | -$3,608 | -$3,509 | -$3,439 | -$3,482 |
| $301 (-15%) | -$2,301 | -$2,100 | -$1,867 | -$1,711 |
| $319 (-10%) | -$1,265 | -$997 | -$640 | +$59 |
| $336 (-5%) | -$508 | -$233 | +$127 | +$690 |
| $347 (-2%) | -$176 | +$78 | +$388 | +$690 |
| $354 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$234 | +$499 | +$690 |
| $361 (+2%) | +$146 | +$355 | +$574 | +$690 |
| $370 (+4%) โ target | +$291 | +$467 | +$630 | +$690 |
| $390 (+10%) | +$498 | +$606 | +$678 | +$690 |
| $407 (+15%) | +$596 | +$659 | +$688 | +$690 |
| $425 (+20%) | +$646 | +$679 | +$690 | +$690 |