Target Price Playground
MAR
$354.10
๐ข
MAR IV: 31.7% โ LOW
(-53.9% vs 30d avg of 68.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $335 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $355 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.55 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $335 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.96 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $335 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,229 (106.0%) on $1,159 risked, vs $-1,910 (-5.4%) for 100 shares on $35,410. Options give 19.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $335. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $335 by Jun 19
+$1,229
+106.0% on $1,159 risked
Max Profit
+$1,193
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$1,157
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$355.98
+0.53% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-14.7 / 1.33 / 18.79
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $283 (-20%) | +$678 | +$722 | +$746 | +$725 |
| $301 (-15%) | +$601 | +$679 | +$766 | +$759 |
| $319 (-10%) | +$457 | +$554 | +$704 | +$898 |
| $335 (-5%) โ target | +$268 | +$352 | +$499 | +$1,229 |
| $347 (-2%) | +$103 | +$159 | +$256 | +$457 |
| $354 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$35 | +$91 | +$87 |
| $361 (+2%) | -$104 | -$91 | -$81 | -$221 |
| $372 (+5%) | -$260 | -$279 | -$330 | -$572 |
| $390 (+10%) | -$499 | -$560 | -$674 | -$921 |
| $407 (+15%) | -$699 | -$780 | -$904 | -$1,075 |
| $425 (+20%) | -$853 | -$934 | -$1,036 | -$1,133 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.