Target Price Playground
MAR
$354.10
๐ข
MAR IV: 31.7% โ LOW
(-53.9% vs 30d avg of 68.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $395 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $355 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.49 ยท ฮ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $395 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$1,951 (95.2%) on $2,049 risked, vs +$4,090 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $35,410. Options give 8.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $395. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $395 by Jun 19
+$1,951
+95.2% on $2,049 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,049
Premium paid
Break-even
$375.49
+6.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.4 / -16.61 / 60.16
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $283 (-20%) | -$1,941 | -$2,014 | -$2,047 | -$2,049 |
| $301 (-15%) | -$1,761 | -$1,916 | -$2,027 | -$2,049 |
| $319 (-10%) | -$1,411 | -$1,670 | -$1,924 | -$2,049 |
| $336 (-5%) | -$834 | -$1,184 | -$1,600 | -$2,049 |
| $347 (-2%) | -$365 | -$750 | -$1,231 | -$2,049 |
| $354 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$398 | -$900 | -$2,049 |
| $361 (+2%) | +$405 | +$4 | -$499 | -$1,431 |
| $372 (+5%) | +$1,086 | +$695 | +$223 | -$368 |
| $390 (+10%) | +$2,388 | +$2,046 | +$1,678 | +$1,402 |
| $395 (+12%) โ target | +$2,828 | +$2,506 | +$2,175 | +$1,951 |
| $407 (+15%) | +$3,858 | +$3,581 | +$3,325 | +$3,172 |
| $425 (+20%) | +$5,449 | +$5,233 | +$5,057 | +$4,943 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.