Target Price Playground
MAR
$354.10
๐ข
MAR IV: 31.7% โ LOW
(-53.9% vs 30d avg of 68.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $310 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $355 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.47 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $310 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$2,653 (143.6%) on $1,847 risked, vs $-4,410 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $35,410. Options give 11.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $310. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $310 by Jun 19
+$2,653
+143.6% on $1,847 risked
Max Profit
+$33,653
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,847
Premium paid
Break-even
$336.53
-4.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.6 / -12.27 / 60.16
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $283 (-20%) | +$5,141 | +$5,164 | +$5,227 | +$5,325 |
| $301 (-15%) | +$3,550 | +$3,491 | +$3,476 | +$3,554 |
| $310 (-12%) โ target | +$2,802 | +$2,691 | +$2,609 | +$2,653 |
| $319 (-10%) | +$2,130 | +$1,967 | +$1,808 | +$1,784 |
| $336 (-5%) | +$937 | +$682 | +$363 | +$14 |
| $347 (-2%) | +$343 | +$54 | -$332 | -$1,049 |
| $354 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$302 | -$708 | -$1,757 |
| $361 (+2%) | -$303 | -$608 | -$1,015 | -$1,847 |
| $372 (+5%) | -$686 | -$980 | -$1,356 | -$1,847 |
| $390 (+10%) | -$1,153 | -$1,400 | -$1,671 | -$1,847 |
| $407 (+15%) | -$1,453 | -$1,634 | -$1,795 | -$1,847 |
| $425 (+20%) | -$1,633 | -$1,753 | -$1,834 | -$1,847 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.