Target Price Playground
MAR
$354.10
๐ข
MAR IV: 31.7% โ LOW
(-53.9% vs 30d avg of 68.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $390 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $354.1 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $335 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.96 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $390 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$2,594 (7.1%) on $36,406 risked, vs +$3,590 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $35,410. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $390 by Jun 19
+$2,594
+7.1% on $36,406 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,906
Put floors you at $335
Break-even
$364.06
+2.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
70.19 / -11.24 / 52.6
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $283 (-20%) | -$2,920 | -$2,972 | -$2,982 | -$2,906 |
| $301 (-15%) | -$2,573 | -$2,728 | -$2,881 | -$2,906 |
| $319 (-10%) | -$1,985 | -$2,230 | -$2,541 | -$2,906 |
| $336 (-5%) | -$1,124 | -$1,411 | -$1,797 | -$2,767 |
| $347 (-2%) | -$479 | -$762 | -$1,133 | -$1,704 |
| $354 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$272 | -$611 | -$996 |
| $361 (+2%) | +$514 | +$261 | -$37 | -$288 |
| $372 (+5%) | +$1,345 | +$1,127 | +$899 | +$775 |
| $390 (+10%) โ target | +$2,897 | +$2,747 | +$2,625 | +$2,594 |
| $407 (+15%) | +$4,474 | +$4,379 | +$4,322 | +$4,315 |
| $425 (+20%) | +$6,164 | +$6,110 | +$6,087 | +$6,086 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.