Target Price Playground
MAR
$354.10
๐ข
MAR IV: 31.7% โ LOW
(-53.9% vs 30d avg of 68.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $405 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $355 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.49 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $355 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.47 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $405 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$1,104 (28.3%) on $3,896 risked, vs +$5,090 (14.4%) for 100 shares on $35,410. Options give 2.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $405. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $405 by Jun 19
+$1,104
+28.3% on $3,896 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,896
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$316.04
-10.75% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
30%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
8.8 / -28.88 / 120.31
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $283 (-20%) | +$3,200 | +$3,150 | +$3,180 | +$3,276 |
| $301 (-15%) | +$1,790 | +$1,575 | +$1,449 | +$1,505 |
| $319 (-10%) | +$719 | +$297 | -$116 | -$265 |
| $336 (-5%) | +$103 | -$502 | -$1,237 | -$2,035 |
| $347 (-2%) | -$21 | -$696 | -$1,563 | -$3,098 |
| $354 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$699 | -$1,608 | -$3,806 |
| $361 (+2%) | +$102 | -$604 | -$1,514 | -$3,278 |
| $372 (+5%) | +$400 | -$285 | -$1,133 | -$2,215 |
| $390 (+10%) | +$1,234 | +$646 | +$7 | -$445 |
| $405 (+14%) โ target | +$2,244 | +$1,769 | +$1,328 | +$1,104 |
| $425 (+20%) | +$3,816 | +$3,480 | +$3,223 | +$3,096 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.