Target Price Playground
MAR
$354.10
๐ข
MAR IV: 31.7% โ LOW
(-53.9% vs 30d avg of 68.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $380 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $354.1 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $380 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.5 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $380 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$3,440 (10.0%) on $34,560 risked, vs +$2,590 (7.3%) for 100 shares on $35,410. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $380. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $380 by Jun 19
+$3,440
+10.0% on $34,560 risked
Max Profit
+$3,440
If the stock โฅ $380 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$34,560
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$345.60
-2.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.3 / 12.72 / -55.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $283 (-20%) | -$6,264 | -$6,238 | -$6,232 | -$6,232 |
| $301 (-15%) | -$4,563 | -$4,493 | -$4,463 | -$4,461 |
| $319 (-10%) | -$2,953 | -$2,805 | -$2,707 | -$2,691 |
| $336 (-5%) | -$1,490 | -$1,241 | -$1,012 | -$921 |
| $347 (-2%) | -$705 | -$394 | -$65 | +$142 |
| $354 (0%) โ spot | -$227 | +$121 | +$516 | +$850 |
| $361 (+2%) | +$213 | +$593 | +$1,046 | +$1,558 |
| $372 (+5%) | +$801 | +$1,214 | +$1,731 | +$2,621 |
| $380 (+7%) โ target | +$1,194 | +$1,620 | +$2,159 | +$3,440 |
| $390 (+10%) | +$1,587 | +$2,015 | +$2,549 | +$3,440 |
| $407 (+15%) | +$2,154 | +$2,550 | +$3,006 | +$3,440 |
| $425 (+20%) | +$2,539 | +$2,876 | +$3,217 | +$3,440 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.