Target Price Playground
MARA
$9.54
๐ข
MARA IV: 90.9% โ LOW
(-25.9% vs 30d avg of 122.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $9 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $10 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.39 ยท ฮ -0.41
SHORT PUT ยท $9 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.19 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MARA hits $9 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$30 (150.2%) on $20 risked, vs $-104 (-10.9%) for 100 shares on $954. Options give 13.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MARA is at $9. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MARA hits $9 by Jun 19
+$30
+150.2% on $20 risked
Max Profit
+$30
If the stock โค $9 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$20
Net debit
Break-even
$9.30
-2.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-5.24 / -0.03 / 0.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MARA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | +$17 | +$18 | +$21 | +$30 |
| $8 (-15%) | +$14 | +$15 | +$17 | +$30 |
| $9 (-11%) โ target | +$12 | +$13 | +$14 | +$30 |
| $9 (-5%) | +$9 | +$9 | +$9 | +$24 |
| $9 (-2%) | +$8 | +$7 | +$6 | -$5 |
| $10 (0%) โ spot | +$7 | +$6 | +$4 | -$20 |
| $10 (+2%) | +$6 | +$4 | +$2 | -$20 |
| $10 (+5%) | +$4 | +$3 | -$0 | -$20 |
| $10 (+10%) | +$2 | -$0 | -$4 | -$20 |
| $11 (+15%) | -$1 | -$3 | -$7 | -$20 |
| $11 (+20%) | -$3 | -$5 | -$10 | -$20 |
Uses MARA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.