Target Price Playground
MARA
$9.54
๐ข
MARA IV: 90.9% โ LOW
(-25.9% vs 30d avg of 122.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $10 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
SHORT PUT ยท $9 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.19 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Cash-Secured Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MARA hits $10 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$119 (15.2%) on $-119 credit (max loss $781), vs +$46 (4.8%) for 100 shares on $954. Options give 3.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MARA is at $10. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MARA hits $10 by Jun 19
+$119
+15.2% on $781 max loss
Max Profit
+$119
If the stock โฅ $9 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$781
If stock โ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$7.81
-18.13% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
90%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
35.86 / 0.97 / -1.56
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MARA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | -$82 | -$64 | -$41 | -$18 |
| $8 (-15%) | -$56 | -$35 | -$9 | +$30 |
| $9 (-10%) | -$32 | -$10 | +$19 | +$78 |
| $9 (-5%) | -$12 | +$11 | +$42 | +$119 |
| $9 (-2%) | -$0 | +$23 | +$54 | +$119 |
| $10 (0%) โ spot | +$7 | +$30 | +$61 | +$119 |
| $10 (+2%) | +$13 | +$37 | +$67 | +$119 |
| $10 (+5%) โ target | +$22 | +$45 | +$75 | +$119 |
| $10 (+10%) | +$36 | +$59 | +$87 | +$119 |
| $11 (+15%) | +$48 | +$70 | +$96 | +$119 |
| $11 (+20%) | +$59 | +$80 | +$103 | +$119 |
Uses MARA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.