Target Price Playground
MARA
$9.54
๐ข
MARA IV: 90.9% โ LOW
(-25.9% vs 30d avg of 122.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $11 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $9.54 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $11 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.13 ยท ฮ 0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MARA hits $11 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$209 (24.8%) on $841 risked, vs +$96 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $954. Options give 2.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MARA is at $11. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MARA hits $11 by Jun 19
+$209
+24.8% on $841 risked
Max Profit
+$209
If the stock โฅ $10 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$841
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$8.41
-11.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
51.39 / 1.14 / -1.63
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MARA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | -$118 | -$102 | -$85 | -$78 |
| $8 (-15%) | -$85 | -$65 | -$43 | -$30 |
| $9 (-10%) | -$53 | -$31 | -$4 | +$18 |
| $9 (-5%) | -$26 | -$0 | +$30 | +$65 |
| $9 (-2%) | -$10 | +$17 | +$50 | +$94 |
| $10 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$28 | +$62 | +$113 |
| $10 (+2%) | +$10 | +$38 | +$74 | +$132 |
| $10 (+5%) | +$24 | +$53 | +$90 | +$161 |
| $11 (+10%) โ target | +$45 | +$75 | +$113 | +$209 |
| $11 (+15%) | +$63 | +$94 | +$133 | +$209 |
| $11 (+20%) | +$80 | +$111 | +$149 | +$209 |
Uses MARA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.