Target Price Playground
MARA
$9.54
๐ข
MARA IV: 90.9% โ LOW
(-25.9% vs 30d avg of 122.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $9 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $10 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.64 ยท ฮ -0.4
SHORT PUT ยท $9 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.19 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MARA hits $9 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$71 (157.8%) on $45 risked, vs $-54 (-5.7%) for 100 shares on $954. Options give 27.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MARA is at $9. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MARA hits $9 by Jun 19
+$71
+157.8% on $45 risked
Max Profit
+$70
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$26
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$10.89
+14.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
88%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-3.73 / 0.15 / 0.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MARA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | +$11 | +$15 | +$21 | +$24 |
| $8 (-15%) | +$11 | +$15 | +$23 | +$37 |
| $9 (-10%) | +$10 | +$14 | +$23 | +$54 |
| $9 (-6%) โ target | +$9 | +$13 | +$22 | +$72 |
| $9 (-2%) | +$8 | +$12 | +$20 | +$54 |
| $10 (0%) โ spot | +$7 | +$11 | +$19 | +$46 |
| $10 (+2%) | +$6 | +$10 | +$17 | +$38 |
| $10 (+5%) | +$5 | +$8 | +$15 | +$26 |
| $10 (+10%) | +$3 | +$6 | +$10 | +$11 |
| $11 (+15%) | +$0 | +$2 | +$5 | -$2 |
| $11 (+20%) | -$2 | -$1 | -$0 | -$12 |
Uses MARA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.