Target Price Playground
MARA
$9.54
๐ข
MARA IV: 90.9% โ LOW
(-25.9% vs 30d avg of 122.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $11 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $10 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.51 ยท ฮ 0.59
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MARA hits $11 by Jun 19: the long call returns $-51 (-33.7%) on $151 risked, vs +$96 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $954. Options give 3.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MARA is at $11. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MARA hits $11 by Jun 19
$-51
-33.7% on $151 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$151
Premium paid
Break-even
$11.01
+15.39% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
58.9 / -1.12 / 1.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MARA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | -$92 | -$111 | -$134 | -$151 |
| $8 (-15%) | -$73 | -$95 | -$122 | -$151 |
| $9 (-10%) | -$51 | -$76 | -$107 | -$151 |
| $9 (-5%) | -$27 | -$53 | -$87 | -$151 |
| $9 (-2%) | -$11 | -$38 | -$72 | -$151 |
| $10 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$27 | -$62 | -$147 |
| $10 (+2%) | +$11 | -$16 | -$51 | -$128 |
| $10 (+5%) | +$29 | +$2 | -$33 | -$99 |
| $11 (+10%) โ target | +$61 | +$34 | -$1 | -$51 |
| $11 (+15%) | +$94 | +$67 | +$34 | -$4 |
| $11 (+20%) | +$129 | +$103 | +$73 | +$44 |
Uses MARA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.