Target Price Playground
MARA
$9.54
๐ข
MARA IV: 90.9% โ LOW
(-25.9% vs 30d avg of 122.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $11 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $9.54 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $9 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.19 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MARA hits $11 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-23 (-2.1%) on $1,073 risked, vs +$96 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $954. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MARA is at $11. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MARA hits $11 by Jun 19
$-23
-2.1% on $1,073 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$173
Put floors you at $9
Break-even
$10.73
+12.47% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.14 / -0.97 / 1.56
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MARA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | -$109 | -$127 | -$150 | -$173 |
| $8 (-15%) | -$87 | -$108 | -$134 | -$173 |
| $9 (-10%) | -$63 | -$85 | -$114 | -$173 |
| $9 (-5%) | -$36 | -$59 | -$90 | -$167 |
| $9 (-2%) | -$19 | -$42 | -$73 | -$138 |
| $10 (0%) โ spot | -$7 | -$30 | -$61 | -$119 |
| $10 (+2%) | +$6 | -$18 | -$48 | -$100 |
| $10 (+5%) | +$25 | +$2 | -$28 | -$71 |
| $11 (+10%) โ target | +$59 | +$37 | +$8 | -$23 |
| $11 (+15%) | +$95 | +$73 | +$47 | +$24 |
| $11 (+20%) | +$132 | +$111 | +$88 | +$72 |
Uses MARA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.