Target Price Playground
MARA
$9.54
๐ข
MARA IV: 90.9% โ LOW
(-25.9% vs 30d avg of 122.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $11 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $10 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.51 ยท ฮ 0.59
LONG PUT ยท $10 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.39 ยท ฮ -0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MARA hits $11 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-140 (-48.2%) on $290 risked, vs +$146 (15.3%) for 100 shares on $954. Options give 3.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MARA is at $11. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MARA hits $11 by Jun 19
$-140
-48.2% on $290 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$290
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$12.40
+29.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
17.8 / -2.12 / 3.18
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MARA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | +$8 | -$29 | -$71 | -$103 |
| $8 (-15%) | -$2 | -$45 | -$96 | -$151 |
| $9 (-10%) | -$7 | -$54 | -$113 | -$199 |
| $9 (-5%) | -$6 | -$56 | -$120 | -$246 |
| $9 (-2%) | -$3 | -$54 | -$121 | -$275 |
| $10 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$52 | -$119 | -$286 |
| $10 (+2%) | +$4 | -$48 | -$116 | -$267 |
| $10 (+5%) | +$11 | -$42 | -$109 | -$238 |
| $10 (+10%) | +$26 | -$26 | -$93 | -$191 |
| $11 (+15%) โ target | +$46 | -$5 | -$67 | -$140 |
| $11 (+20%) | +$68 | +$19 | -$40 | -$95 |
Uses MARA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.