Target Price Playground
MCD
$305.68
๐ข
MCD IV: 22.7% โ LOW
(-47.2% vs 30d avg of 43.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $305 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.75 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $280 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.34 ยท ฮ -0.18
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCD hits $270 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,759 (237.4%) on $741 risked, vs $-3,568 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $30,568. Options give 20.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCD is at $270. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MCD hits $270 by Jun 19
+$1,759
+237.4% on $741 risked
Max Profit
+$1,759
If the stock โค $280 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$741
Net debit
Break-even
$297.59
-2.65% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
23%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-28.14 / -1.97 / 19.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $245 (-20%) | +$1,641 | +$1,704 | +$1,747 | +$1,759 |
| $260 (-15%) | +$1,428 | +$1,543 | +$1,680 | +$1,759 |
| $270 (-12%) โ target | +$1,187 | +$1,309 | +$1,497 | +$1,759 |
| $275 (-10%) | +$1,038 | +$1,148 | +$1,335 | +$1,759 |
| $290 (-5%) | +$532 | +$556 | +$597 | +$719 |
| $300 (-2%) | +$226 | +$189 | +$109 | -$198 |
| $306 (0%) โ spot | +$40 | -$29 | -$166 | -$741 |
| $312 (+2%) | -$126 | -$216 | -$379 | -$741 |
| $321 (+5%) | -$330 | -$432 | -$584 | -$741 |
| $336 (+10%) | -$555 | -$634 | -$714 | -$741 |
| $352 (+15%) | -$667 | -$711 | -$738 | -$741 |
| $367 (+20%) | -$715 | -$734 | -$741 | -$741 |
Uses MCD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.