Target Price Playground
MCD
$305.68
๐ข
MCD IV: 22.7% โ LOW
(-47.2% vs 30d avg of 43.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $340 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $305 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.4 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $330 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.41 ยท ฮ 0.2
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCD hits $340 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,601 (178.1%) on $899 risked, vs +$3,432 (11.2%) for 100 shares on $30,568. Options give 15.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCD is at $340. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MCD hits $340 by Jun 19
+$1,601
+178.1% on $899 risked
Max Profit
+$1,601
If the stock โฅ $330 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$899
Net debit
Break-even
$313.99
+2.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
24%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
35.47 / -3.95 / 13.13
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $245 (-20%) | -$887 | -$897 | -$899 | -$899 |
| $260 (-15%) | -$840 | -$879 | -$898 | -$899 |
| $275 (-10%) | -$701 | -$790 | -$874 | -$899 |
| $290 (-5%) | -$416 | -$534 | -$711 | -$899 |
| $300 (-2%) | -$175 | -$277 | -$458 | -$899 |
| $306 (0%) โ spot | +$7 | -$68 | -$212 | -$831 |
| $312 (+2%) | +$199 | +$159 | +$80 | -$220 |
| $321 (+5%) | +$487 | +$506 | +$547 | +$697 |
| $336 (+10%) | +$915 | +$1,008 | +$1,176 | +$1,601 |
| $340 (+11%) โ target | +$1,003 | +$1,105 | +$1,280 | +$1,601 |
| $352 (+15%) | +$1,225 | +$1,333 | +$1,482 | +$1,601 |
| $367 (+20%) | +$1,413 | +$1,495 | +$1,574 | +$1,601 |
Uses MCD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.