Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCD hits $320 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$334 (1.2%) on $-334 credit (max loss $27,666), vs +$1,432 (4.7%) for 100 shares on $30,568. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCD is at $320. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $245 (-20%) | -$3,092 | -$3,100 | -$3,137 | -$3,212 |
| $260 (-15%) | -$1,830 | -$1,751 | -$1,677 | -$1,683 |
| $275 (-10%) | -$864 | -$716 | -$517 | -$155 |
| $290 (-5%) | -$239 | -$89 | +$102 | +$334 |
| $300 (-2%) | -$9 | +$115 | +$250 | +$334 |
| $306 (0%) โ spot | +$98 | +$199 | +$296 | +$334 |
| $312 (+2%) | +$175 | +$254 | +$318 | +$334 |
| $320 (+5%) โ target | +$244 | +$297 | +$330 | +$334 |
| $336 (+10%) | +$308 | +$327 | +$334 | +$334 |
| $352 (+15%) | +$327 | +$333 | +$334 | +$334 |
| $367 (+20%) | +$332 | +$334 | +$334 | +$334 |