Target Price Playground
MCD
$305.68
๐ข
MCD IV: 22.7% โ LOW
(-47.2% vs 30d avg of 43.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $330 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $305.68 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $330 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.41 ยท ฮ 0.2
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCD hits $330 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,673 (8.8%) on $30,327 risked, vs +$2,432 (8.0%) for 100 shares on $30,568. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCD is at $330. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MCD hits $330 by Jun 19
+$2,673
+8.8% on $30,327 risked
Max Profit
+$2,673
If the stock โฅ $330 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$30,327
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$303.27
-0.79% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
41%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
80.5 / 5.5 / -38.19
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $245 (-20%) | -$5,874 | -$5,873 | -$5,873 | -$5,873 |
| $260 (-15%) | -$4,352 | -$4,345 | -$4,344 | -$4,344 |
| $275 (-10%) | -$2,857 | -$2,827 | -$2,816 | -$2,816 |
| $290 (-5%) | -$1,441 | -$1,351 | -$1,295 | -$1,287 |
| $300 (-2%) | -$664 | -$523 | -$406 | -$370 |
| $306 (0%) โ spot | -$189 | -$11 | +$160 | +$241 |
| $312 (+2%) | +$245 | +$458 | +$687 | +$852 |
| $321 (+5%) | +$813 | +$1,066 | +$1,371 | +$1,769 |
| $330 (+8%) โ target | +$1,268 | +$1,541 | +$1,882 | +$2,673 |
| $336 (+10%) | +$1,523 | +$1,797 | +$2,134 | +$2,673 |
| $352 (+15%) | +$1,965 | +$2,205 | +$2,464 | +$2,673 |
| $367 (+20%) | +$2,207 | +$2,392 | +$2,559 | +$2,673 |
Uses MCD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.