Target Price Playground
MCD
$305.68
๐ข
MCD IV: 22.7% โ LOW
(-47.2% vs 30d avg of 43.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $290 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $305 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.89 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $290 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.64 ยท ฮ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCD hits $290 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,011 (161.7%) on $625 risked, vs $-1,568 (-5.1%) for 100 shares on $30,568. Options give 31.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCD is at $290. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MCD hits $290 by Jun 19
+$1,011
+161.7% on $625 risked
Max Profit
+$1,002
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$625
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$306.84
+0.38% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-15.95 / 1.52 / 18.49
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $245 (-20%) | +$752 | +$766 | +$769 | +$770 |
| $260 (-15%) | +$708 | +$750 | +$780 | +$773 |
| $275 (-10%) | +$589 | +$658 | +$751 | +$812 |
| $290 (-5%) โ target | +$382 | +$443 | +$546 | +$1,011 |
| $300 (-2%) | +$217 | +$250 | +$303 | +$365 |
| $306 (0%) โ spot | +$106 | +$118 | +$128 | +$50 |
| $312 (+2%) | -$3 | -$13 | -$42 | -$188 |
| $321 (+5%) | -$155 | -$190 | -$259 | -$419 |
| $336 (+10%) | -$358 | -$410 | -$486 | -$581 |
| $352 (+15%) | -$489 | -$534 | -$582 | -$618 |
| $367 (+20%) | -$562 | -$591 | -$614 | -$624 |
Uses MCD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.