Target Price Playground
MCD
$305.68
๐ข
MCD IV: 22.7% โ LOW
(-47.2% vs 30d avg of 43.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $340 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $305 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.4 ยท ฮ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCD hits $340 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$2,360 (207.0%) on $1,140 risked, vs +$3,432 (11.2%) for 100 shares on $30,568. Options give 18.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCD is at $340. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MCD hits $340 by Jun 19
+$2,360
+207.0% on $1,140 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,140
Premium paid
Break-even
$316.40
+3.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
24%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.98 / -9.45 / 51.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $245 (-20%) | -$1,127 | -$1,138 | -$1,140 | -$1,140 |
| $260 (-15%) | -$1,073 | -$1,119 | -$1,139 | -$1,140 |
| $275 (-10%) | -$901 | -$1,021 | -$1,115 | -$1,140 |
| $290 (-5%) | -$503 | -$711 | -$944 | -$1,140 |
| $300 (-2%) | -$122 | -$365 | -$663 | -$1,140 |
| $306 (0%) โ spot | +$197 | -$57 | -$372 | -$1,072 |
| $312 (+2%) | +$565 | +$312 | +$3 | -$461 |
| $321 (+5%) | +$1,202 | +$968 | +$703 | +$456 |
| $336 (+10%) | +$2,448 | +$2,268 | +$2,099 | +$1,985 |
| $340 (+11%) โ target | +$2,780 | +$2,613 | +$2,463 | +$2,360 |
| $352 (+15%) | +$3,845 | +$3,713 | +$3,602 | +$3,513 |
| $367 (+20%) | +$5,320 | +$5,218 | +$5,129 | +$5,042 |
Uses MCD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.