Target Price Playground
MCD
$305.68
๐ข
MCD IV: 22.7% โ LOW
(-47.2% vs 30d avg of 43.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $305 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.75 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCD hits $270 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$2,425 (225.6%) on $1,075 risked, vs $-3,568 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $30,568. Options give 19.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCD is at $270. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MCD hits $270 by Jun 19
+$2,425
+225.6% on $1,075 risked
Max Profit
+$29,425
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,075
Premium paid
Break-even
$294.25
-3.74% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
23%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.74 / -7.83 / 51.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $245 (-20%) | +$4,733 | +$4,804 | +$4,885 | +$4,971 |
| $260 (-15%) | +$3,258 | +$3,294 | +$3,357 | +$3,442 |
| $270 (-12%) โ target | +$2,336 | +$2,327 | +$2,349 | +$2,425 |
| $275 (-10%) | +$1,902 | +$1,865 | +$1,853 | +$1,914 |
| $290 (-5%) | +$771 | +$645 | +$494 | +$385 |
| $300 (-2%) | +$235 | +$75 | -$142 | -$532 |
| $306 (0%) โ spot | -$57 | -$228 | -$462 | -$1,075 |
| $312 (+2%) | -$300 | -$471 | -$697 | -$1,075 |
| $321 (+5%) | -$580 | -$732 | -$914 | -$1,075 |
| $336 (+10%) | -$862 | -$961 | -$1,048 | -$1,075 |
| $352 (+15%) | -$994 | -$1,044 | -$1,072 | -$1,075 |
| $367 (+20%) | -$1,048 | -$1,068 | -$1,075 | -$1,075 |
Uses MCD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.