Target Price Playground
MCD
$305.68
๐ข
MCD IV: 22.7% โ LOW
(-47.2% vs 30d avg of 43.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $305 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.4 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $305 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.75 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCD hits $350 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$2,285 (103.2%) on $2,215 risked, vs +$4,432 (14.5%) for 100 shares on $30,568. Options give 7.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCD is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MCD hits $350 by Jun 19
+$2,285
+103.2% on $2,215 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,215
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$327.15
+7.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
13%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.23 / -17.28 / 102.64
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $245 (-20%) | +$3,605 | +$3,666 | +$3,745 | +$3,831 |
| $260 (-15%) | +$2,184 | +$2,176 | +$2,218 | +$2,302 |
| $275 (-10%) | +$1,002 | +$844 | +$737 | +$774 |
| $290 (-5%) | +$267 | -$66 | -$450 | -$755 |
| $300 (-2%) | +$114 | -$290 | -$805 | -$1,672 |
| $306 (0%) โ spot | +$139 | -$285 | -$834 | -$2,147 |
| $312 (+2%) | +$264 | -$158 | -$694 | -$1,536 |
| $321 (+5%) | +$622 | +$237 | -$211 | -$619 |
| $336 (+10%) | +$1,586 | +$1,307 | +$1,051 | +$910 |
| $350 (+14%) โ target | +$2,715 | +$2,525 | +$2,379 | +$2,285 |
| $367 (+20%) | +$4,273 | +$4,150 | +$4,054 | +$3,967 |
Uses MCD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.