Target Price Playground
MCHP
$71.56
๐ข
MCHP IV: 50.5% โ LOW
(-42.8% vs 30d avg of 88.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $80 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $72 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.14 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $77 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.16 ยท ฮ 0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $80 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$302 (152.4%) on $198 risked, vs +$844 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $7,156. Options give 12.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $80. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MCHP hits $80 by Jun 19
+$302
+152.4% on $198 risked
Max Profit
+$302
If the stock โฅ $77 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$198
Net debit
Break-even
$73.98
+3.38% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.52 / -0.14 / 0.16
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | -$150 | -$168 | -$190 | -$198 |
| $61 (-15%) | -$121 | -$142 | -$173 | -$198 |
| $64 (-10%) | -$85 | -$104 | -$140 | -$198 |
| $68 (-5%) | -$44 | -$58 | -$87 | -$198 |
| $70 (-2%) | -$18 | -$26 | -$47 | -$198 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$5 | -$18 | -$198 |
| $73 (+2%) | +$18 | +$17 | +$12 | -$99 |
| $75 (+5%) | +$45 | +$50 | +$57 | +$116 |
| $79 (+10%) | +$88 | +$102 | +$129 | +$302 |
| $80 (+12%) โ target | +$102 | +$119 | +$151 | +$302 |
| $82 (+15%) | +$127 | +$148 | +$188 | +$302 |
| $86 (+20%) | +$162 | +$187 | +$232 | +$302 |
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.