Target Price Playground
MCHP
$71.56
๐ข
MCHP IV: 50.5% โ LOW
(-42.8% vs 30d avg of 88.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $63 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $72 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.98 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $66 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.26 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $63 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$327 (119.9%) on $273 risked, vs $-856 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $7,156. Options give 10.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $63. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MCHP hits $63 by Jun 19
+$327
+119.9% on $273 risked
Max Profit
+$327
If the stock โค $66 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$273
Net debit
Break-even
$69.27
-3.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-15.39 / -0.38 / 1.49
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | +$219 | +$245 | +$287 | +$328 |
| $61 (-15%) | +$170 | +$193 | +$235 | +$328 |
| $63 (-12%) โ target | +$137 | +$155 | +$191 | +$328 |
| $64 (-10%) | +$115 | +$129 | +$158 | +$328 |
| $68 (-5%) | +$58 | +$59 | +$64 | +$130 |
| $70 (-2%) | +$23 | +$17 | +$5 | -$85 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | -$10 | -$32 | -$228 |
| $73 (+2%) | -$21 | -$36 | -$67 | -$272 |
| $75 (+5%) | -$52 | -$73 | -$114 | -$272 |
| $79 (+10%) | -$99 | -$127 | -$177 | -$272 |
| $82 (+15%) | -$138 | -$169 | -$219 | -$272 |
| $86 (+20%) | -$171 | -$202 | -$244 | -$272 |
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.