Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $75 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$326 (5.2%) on $-326 credit (max loss $6,274), vs +$344 (4.8%) for 100 shares on $7,156. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $75. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | -$704 | -$645 | -$581 | -$549 |
| $61 (-15%) | -$472 | -$395 | -$299 | -$191 |
| $64 (-10%) | -$279 | -$190 | -$73 | +$166 |
| $68 (-5%) | -$122 | -$31 | +$90 | +$326 |
| $70 (-2%) | -$45 | +$45 | +$161 | +$326 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$88 | +$198 | +$326 |
| $73 (+2%) | +$41 | +$126 | +$228 | +$326 |
| $75 (+5%) โ target | +$91 | +$170 | +$259 | +$326 |
| $79 (+10%) | +$163 | +$230 | +$296 | +$326 |
| $82 (+15%) | +$214 | +$267 | +$313 | +$326 |
| $86 (+20%) | +$250 | +$291 | +$320 | +$326 |