Target Price Playground
MCHP
$71.56
๐ข
MCHP IV: 50.5% โ LOW
(-42.8% vs 30d avg of 88.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $68 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $72 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.0 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $68 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.06 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $68 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$306 (103.8%) on $294 risked, vs $-356 (-5.0%) for 100 shares on $7,156. Options give 20.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $68. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MCHP hits $68 by Jun 19
+$306
+103.8% on $294 risked
Max Profit
+$298
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$281
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$74.09
+3.53% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
82%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.07 / 0.56 / 3.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | +$85 | +$101 | +$115 | +$100 |
| $61 (-15%) | +$74 | +$95 | +$124 | +$132 |
| $64 (-10%) | +$56 | +$79 | +$118 | +$196 |
| $68 (-5%) โ target | +$31 | +$52 | +$91 | +$306 |
| $70 (-2%) | +$13 | +$31 | +$65 | +$182 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$16 | +$44 | +$109 |
| $73 (+2%) | -$13 | -$0 | +$22 | +$44 |
| $75 (+5%) | -$34 | -$26 | -$15 | -$38 |
| $79 (+10%) | -$68 | -$69 | -$76 | -$140 |
| $82 (+15%) | -$103 | -$111 | -$133 | -$205 |
| $86 (+20%) | -$135 | -$150 | -$180 | -$245 |
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.