Target Price Playground
MCHP
$71.56
๐ข
MCHP IV: 50.5% โ LOW
(-42.8% vs 30d avg of 88.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $80 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $72 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.14 ยท ฮ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $80 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$186 (30.4%) on $614 risked, vs +$844 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $7,156. Options give 2.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $80. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MCHP hits $80 by Jun 19
+$186
+30.4% on $614 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$614
Premium paid
Break-even
$78.14
+9.19% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.64 / -4.91 / 12.15
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | -$509 | -$561 | -$603 | -$614 |
| $61 (-15%) | -$431 | -$506 | -$579 | -$614 |
| $64 (-10%) | -$323 | -$417 | -$524 | -$614 |
| $68 (-5%) | -$179 | -$289 | -$424 | -$614 |
| $70 (-2%) | -$76 | -$191 | -$338 | -$614 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$118 | -$269 | -$614 |
| $73 (+2%) | +$80 | -$39 | -$191 | -$515 |
| $75 (+5%) | +$211 | +$92 | -$57 | -$300 |
| $79 (+10%) | +$453 | +$339 | +$204 | +$58 |
| $80 (+12%) โ target | +$546 | +$436 | +$307 | +$186 |
| $82 (+15%) | +$720 | +$616 | +$502 | +$415 |
| $86 (+20%) | +$1,010 | +$918 | +$827 | +$773 |
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.