Target Price Playground
MCHP
$71.56
๐ข
MCHP IV: 50.5% โ LOW
(-42.8% vs 30d avg of 88.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $79 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $71.56 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $68 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.06 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $79 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$338 (4.5%) on $7,562 risked, vs +$744 (10.4%) for 100 shares on $7,156. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $79. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MCHP hits $79 by Jun 19
+$338
+4.5% on $7,562 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$762
Put floors you at $68
Break-even
$75.62
+5.67% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.98 / -3.85 / 11.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | -$651 | -$701 | -$750 | -$762 |
| $61 (-15%) | -$542 | -$613 | -$696 | -$762 |
| $64 (-10%) | -$398 | -$484 | -$595 | -$762 |
| $68 (-5%) | -$216 | -$310 | -$435 | -$762 |
| $70 (-2%) | -$91 | -$185 | -$310 | -$549 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$94 | -$215 | -$406 |
| $73 (+2%) | +$95 | +$3 | -$113 | -$263 |
| $75 (+5%) | +$247 | +$160 | +$55 | -$48 |
| $79 (+10%) โ target | +$544 | +$468 | +$387 | +$338 |
| $82 (+15%) | +$816 | +$752 | +$691 | +$667 |
| $86 (+20%) | +$1,128 | +$1,077 | +$1,036 | +$1,025 |
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.