Target Price Playground
MCHP
$71.56
๐ข
MCHP IV: 50.5% โ LOW
(-42.8% vs 30d avg of 88.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $82 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $72 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.14 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $72 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.98 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $82 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-212 (-17.5%) on $1,212 risked, vs +$1,044 (14.6%) for 100 shares on $7,156. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $82. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MCHP hits $82 by Jun 19
$-212
-17.5% on $1,212 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$1,212
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$59.88
-16.32% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.27 / -8.94 / 24.3
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | +$414 | +$329 | +$265 | +$263 |
| $61 (-15%) | +$211 | +$82 | -$45 | -$95 |
| $64 (-10%) | +$72 | -$98 | -$293 | -$452 |
| $68 (-5%) | +$1 | -$199 | -$451 | -$810 |
| $70 (-2%) | -$8 | -$220 | -$494 | -$1,025 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$217 | -$499 | -$1,168 |
| $73 (+2%) | +$19 | -$201 | -$486 | -$1,113 |
| $75 (+5%) | +$66 | -$153 | -$433 | -$898 |
| $79 (+10%) | +$191 | -$17 | -$269 | -$540 |
| $82 (+15%) โ target | +$352 | +$162 | -$51 | -$212 |
| $86 (+20%) | +$589 | +$425 | +$262 | +$175 |
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.