Target Price Playground
MCHP
$71.56
๐ข
MCHP IV: 50.5% โ LOW
(-42.8% vs 30d avg of 88.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $77 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $71.56 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $77 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.16 ยท ฮ 0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $77 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$960 (14.2%) on $6,740 risked, vs +$544 (7.6%) for 100 shares on $7,156. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $77. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MCHP hits $77 by Jun 19
+$960
+14.2% on $6,740 risked
Max Profit
+$960
If the stock โฅ $77 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$6,740
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$67.40
-5.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.88 / 4.77 / -11.99
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57 (-20%) | -$1,072 | -$1,038 | -$1,018 | -$1,015 |
| $61 (-15%) | -$763 | -$709 | -$667 | -$657 |
| $64 (-10%) | -$479 | -$403 | -$331 | -$300 |
| $68 (-5%) | -$223 | -$127 | -$20 | +$58 |
| $70 (-2%) | -$85 | +$22 | +$148 | +$273 |
| $72 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$114 | +$251 | +$416 |
| $73 (+2%) | +$81 | +$199 | +$346 | +$559 |
| $75 (+5%) | +$191 | +$315 | +$473 | +$774 |
| $77 (+8%) โ target | +$278 | +$405 | +$567 | +$960 |
| $79 (+10%) | +$350 | +$478 | +$641 | +$960 |
| $82 (+15%) | +$479 | +$605 | +$759 | +$960 |
| $86 (+20%) | +$583 | +$700 | +$836 | +$960 |
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.