Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder
MELI
$1,773.96
๐ŸŸข
MELI IV: 43.4% โ€” LOW (-33.5% vs 30d avg of 65.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $1560 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

67d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $1770 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $123.15 ยท ฮ” -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $1630 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $63.45 ยท ฮ” -0.28
P&L at Expiry Now $1774 Target $1560 $1242 $1774 $2306
Stock (100 sh) Bear Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If MELI hits $1560 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$8,030 (134.5%) on $5,970 risked, vs $-21,396 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $177,396. Options give 11.1ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MELI is at $1560. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if MELI hits $1560 by Jun 19
+$8,030
+134.5% on $5,970 risked
Max Profit
+$8,030
If the stock โ‰ค $1630 at expiry
Max Loss
โˆ’$5,970
Net debit
Break-even
$1710.30
-3.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-16.22 / -10.38 / 44.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

MELI Price Today May 5 May 27 Jun 19 (exp)
$1419 (-20%) +$5,714 +$6,341 +$7,267 +$8,030
$1508 (-15%) +$4,472 +$5,034 +$6,066 +$8,030
$1560 (-12%) โ† target +$3,639 +$4,087 +$4,986 +$8,030
$1597 (-10%) +$3,025 +$3,365 +$4,082 +$8,030
$1685 (-5%) +$1,493 +$1,516 +$1,585 +$2,504
$1738 (-2%) +$586 +$411 +$55 -$2,818
$1774 (0%) โ† spot +$0 -$298 -$908 -$5,970
$1809 (+2%) -$563 -$972 -$1,795 -$5,970
$1863 (+5%) -$1,357 -$1,903 -$2,948 -$5,970
$1951 (+10%) -$2,520 -$3,200 -$4,355 -$5,970
$2040 (+15%) -$3,465 -$4,172 -$5,192 -$5,970
$2129 (+20%) -$4,199 -$4,853 -$5,629 -$5,970
Uses MELI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.