Target Price Playground
MELI
$1,773.96
๐ข
MELI IV: 43.4% โ LOW
(-33.5% vs 30d avg of 65.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1990 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $1770 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $141.67 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $1920 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $57.74 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MELI hits $1990 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$6,607 (78.7%) on $8,393 risked, vs +$21,604 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $177,396. Options give 6.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MELI is at $1990. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MELI hits $1990 by Jun 19
+$6,607
+78.7% on $8,393 risked
Max Profit
+$6,607
If the stock โฅ $1920 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$8,393
Net debit
Break-even
$1853.93
+4.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
19.12 / -11.92 / 20.5
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MELI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1419 (-20%) | -$7,263 | -$7,758 | -$8,255 | -$8,393 |
| $1508 (-15%) | -$6,416 | -$7,032 | -$7,876 | -$8,393 |
| $1597 (-10%) | -$5,290 | -$5,903 | -$6,970 | -$8,393 |
| $1685 (-5%) | -$3,939 | -$4,399 | -$5,352 | -$8,393 |
| $1738 (-2%) | -$3,057 | -$3,364 | -$4,058 | -$8,393 |
| $1774 (0%) โ spot | -$2,454 | -$2,640 | -$3,099 | -$7,997 |
| $1809 (+2%) | -$1,847 | -$1,904 | -$2,094 | -$4,449 |
| $1863 (+5%) | -$943 | -$802 | -$567 | +$873 |
| $1951 (+10%) | +$499 | +$941 | +$1,796 | +$6,607 |
| $1990 (+12%) โ target | +$1,086 | +$1,636 | +$2,684 | +$6,607 |
| $2040 (+15%) | +$1,799 | +$2,461 | +$3,672 | +$6,607 |
| $2129 (+20%) | +$2,914 | +$3,693 | +$4,966 | +$6,607 |
Uses MELI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.