Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder
MELI
$1,773.96
๐ŸŸข
MELI IV: 43.4% โ€” LOW (-33.5% vs 30d avg of 65.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $1690 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

67d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $1770 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $145.08 ยท ฮ” -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $1690 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $86.12 ยท ฮ” -0.35
P&L at Expiry Now $1774 Target $1690 $1242 $1774 $2306
Stock (100 sh) Diagonal Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If MELI hits $1690 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$6,683 (113.4%) on $5,896 risked, vs $-8,396 (-4.7%) for 100 shares on $177,396. Options give 24.1ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MELI is at $1690. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if MELI hits $1690 by Jun 19
+$6,683
+113.4% on $5,896 risked
Max Profit
+$6,431
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โˆ’$5,777
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$1827.37
+3.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-8.47 / 12.27 / 75.24
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

MELI Price Today May 5 May 27 Jun 19 (exp)
$1419 (-20%) +$1,761 +$2,020 +$2,196 +$1,776
$1508 (-15%) +$1,594 +$2,005 +$2,531 +$2,415
$1597 (-10%) +$1,238 +$1,732 +$2,551 +$3,859
$1690 (-5%) โ† target +$660 +$1,125 +$1,979 +$6,683
$1738 (-2%) +$292 +$694 +$1,432 +$3,924
$1774 (0%) โ† spot -$0 +$340 +$946 +$2,185
$1809 (+2%) -$308 -$40 +$407 +$677
$1863 (+5%) -$787 -$640 -$459 -$1,178
$1951 (+10%) -$1,600 -$1,658 -$1,897 -$3,331
$2040 (+15%) -$2,383 -$2,616 -$3,145 -$4,594
$2129 (+20%) -$3,096 -$3,450 -$4,107 -$5,276
Uses MELI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.