Target Price Playground
MELI
$1,773.96
๐ข
MELI IV: 43.4% โ LOW
(-33.5% vs 30d avg of 65.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1990 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $1770 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $141.67 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MELI hits $1990 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$7,833 (55.3%) on $14,167 risked, vs +$21,604 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $177,396. Options give 4.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MELI is at $1990. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MELI hits $1990 by Jun 19
+$7,833
+55.3% on $14,167 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$14,167
Premium paid
Break-even
$1911.67
+7.76% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.96 / -108.71 / 299.83
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MELI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1419 (-20%) | -$12,256 | -$13,270 | -$14,011 | -$14,167 |
| $1508 (-15%) | -$10,552 | -$12,095 | -$13,549 | -$14,167 |
| $1597 (-10%) | -$7,996 | -$10,046 | -$12,345 | -$14,167 |
| $1685 (-5%) | -$4,486 | -$6,914 | -$9,917 | -$14,167 |
| $1738 (-2%) | -$1,910 | -$4,473 | -$7,723 | -$14,167 |
| $1774 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$2,611 | -$5,936 | -$13,771 |
| $1809 (+2%) | +$2,059 | -$567 | -$3,893 | -$10,223 |
| $1863 (+5%) | +$5,413 | +$2,822 | -$382 | -$4,901 |
| $1951 (+10%) | +$11,647 | +$9,242 | +$6,481 | +$3,969 |
| $1990 (+12%) โ target | +$14,586 | +$12,297 | +$9,781 | +$7,833 |
| $2040 (+15%) | +$18,569 | +$16,450 | +$14,261 | +$12,838 |
| $2129 (+20%) | +$26,042 | +$24,246 | +$22,599 | +$21,708 |
Uses MELI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.