Target Price Playground
MELI
$1,773.96
๐ข
MELI IV: 43.4% โ LOW
(-33.5% vs 30d avg of 65.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1560 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $1770 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $123.15 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MELI hits $1560 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$8,685 (70.5%) on $12,315 risked, vs $-21,396 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $177,396. Options give 5.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MELI is at $1560. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MELI hits $1560 by Jun 19
+$8,685
+70.5% on $12,315 risked
Max Profit
+$164,685
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$12,315
Premium paid
Break-even
$1646.85
-7.17% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.04 / -87.07 / 299.83
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MELI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1419 (-20%) | +$23,223 | +$22,685 | +$22,423 | +$22,768 |
| $1508 (-15%) | +$16,057 | +$14,991 | +$14,014 | +$13,898 |
| $1560 (-12%) โ target | +$12,234 | +$10,861 | +$9,387 | +$8,685 |
| $1597 (-10%) | +$9,743 | +$8,171 | +$6,349 | +$5,029 |
| $1685 (-5%) | +$4,383 | +$2,433 | -$92 | -$3,841 |
| $1738 (-2%) | +$1,638 | -$448 | -$3,221 | -$9,163 |
| $1774 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$2,134 | -$4,981 | -$12,315 |
| $1809 (+2%) | -$1,489 | -$3,638 | -$6,486 | -$12,315 |
| $1863 (+5%) | -$3,457 | -$5,571 | -$8,297 | -$12,315 |
| $1951 (+10%) | -$6,093 | -$8,021 | -$10,304 | -$12,315 |
| $2040 (+15%) | -$8,040 | -$9,682 | -$11,393 | -$12,315 |
| $2129 (+20%) | -$9,437 | -$10,756 | -$11,925 | -$12,315 |
Uses MELI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.